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随着碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)工程示范项目和商业化利用数量的迅速增加和规模的不断扩大，亟须夯实CCUS安全发展根基，提升以安全风险识别、评估和防控为主的安全风险管理水平。我国石油与天然气工业CCUS已进入集群化发展新阶段，现有CCUS单一环节安全风险评估模型不仅难以捕捉复杂环境下的动态变化和非线性关系，且评估目的分散，直接沿用既有模式，不利于新型CCUS系统风险传递行为和事故演化机制分析。为适应该趋势，可综合考虑系统弹性和非技术因素，对新型CCUS系统安全风险评估指标体系进行完善；并基于风险关联分析和动态演化过程进行系统建模，以优化新型CCUS系统安全风险评估方法，从而为石油与天然气工业CCUS集群化部署之下的新型CCUS系统构建更科学、更准确、更有效的安全风险评估体系，为后续加强安全风险评估-监测-预警-防控一体化建设、推动安全关口前移、优化应急管理体制和资源配置提供决策支持，保障石油与天然气工业CCUS可持续发展。
Abstract：With the rapid increase in the number and scale of carbon capture, utilization and storage(CCUS)demonstration projects and commercial utilization, there is an urgent need to consolidate the foundation of CCUS security development and improve the level of security risk assessment based on security risk identification, assessment, prevention and management.China's oil and gas industry CCUS has now entered a new stage of cluster development. The existing CCUS single-link safety risk assessment model is not only difficult to capture the dynamic changes and nonlinear effects in the complex environment, but also features the dispersion of assessment objectives and directly follows the existing model, which will lead to defects in the analysis of risk transfer behavior and accident evolution mechanism of the new CCUS system. In order to adapt to this trend, system modeling based on risk correlation analysis and dynamic evolution process is helpful to optimize security risk assessment methods, so as to build a more scientific, more accurate and more effective security risk assessment system for the new CCUS system under CCUS cluster deployment in oil and gas industry, and provide support for strengthening the integrated construction of “security risk assessment-monitoring-early warning-prevention”, improving the level of accident prevention, optimizing emergency management system and resource allocation, to ensure the sustainable development of CCUS.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-05-001
中图分类号:TE38
引用信息:
[1]曾德智,陈雪珂,罗建成,等.石油与天然气工业CCUS系统安全风险评估研究现状及展望[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2025,55(05):944-955.DOI:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-05-001.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金(51774249); 四川省科技计划项目(21JCQN0066)